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We are reminded, not of the loss, but of the contributions this person made to each of us. By the fourth quarter, however, signs of an upturn in U. Real economic activity abroad continued to expand at a moderate rate, but relative strength shifted significantly across the major industrial countries. In Japan, where growth during the recovery had been strongest among the major foreign industrial countries, real GNP slowed somewhat from its pace in In contrast, economic activity in Germany recovered in the second quarter, from a decline earlier in the year that had resulted in part from a particularly severe winter, and then strengthened further during the rest of the year.
The ending in March of a prolonged miners' strike in the United Kingdom contributed importantly to U. Louis growth that was faster than in the previous year. Despite moderate economic growth, unemployment rates abroad stayed close to the historically high levels of recent years. In Germany and the United Kingdom, unemployment rates remained about unchanged throughout the year, while in Japan the rate edged up slightly during the second half of In Canada, and to a lesser extent in France, some reduction in the rate of unemployment did occur.
The rate of inflation in the major foreign industrial countries on balance fell further in Data for the United States are from the U. Departments of Commerce and Labor.
International Developments tries rates dropped to levels not experienced in more than a decade. The moderate pace of the recovery, the appreciation against the dollar of the currencies of most of these countries, weakness in world oil and other commodity prices, and continued slack in labor markets, particularly in the European economies, were all factors contributing to the deceleration of price increases.
Money growth abroad remained generally moderate. With a few exceptions, growth of specific aggregates was within announced targets, which most often were equal to or slightly below targets set for the previous year.
Fiscal policy measures led to government deficits that, as a fraction of GNP, were about unchanged or further reduced in the major foreign industrial countries. Significantly larger current account surpluses in several foreign industrial countries corresponded in the aggregate to the greater U.
The continued current account deficit of non-OPEC developing countries widened somewhat in as compared with but remained considerably below the large imbalances of the period. The widening of the current account deficit last year reflected mainly a decline in export revenues, much of which can be traced to an economic slowdown in industrial countries and a substantial decline in primary commodity prices from their level.
With exchange rates often linked to the U. Louis 21 countries of Latin America and East Asia permitted some deterioration of their international trade competitiveness early in the year but, following the downward trend of the dollar after February, showed a dramatic net improvement in their export competitiveness over the year as a whole. Growth in developing countries remained moderate in Inflation remained a problem in several countries, with rates of inflation rising in Brazil and Yugoslavia and remaining high in Mexico.
In contrast, Argentina instituted a monetary reform in mid, which facilitated a dramatic reduction in its inflation rate. The problems associated with the large volume of external debt of developing countries remained one of the most important issues in international finance in Despite a significant decline in interest rates in , a number of developing countries with large external debts found it difficult to implement consistently the economic adjustment programs begun in because levels of economic activity and living standards remained low compared with those of the late s.
Partly in response to these continuing strains, U. Treasury Secretary Baker proposed a strengthening of the overall debt strategy at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank held in Seoul in October The initiative retains the case-by-case approach to the debt problems of individual countries that has been followed since Under the plan, commercial banks and multilateral development banks, especially the World Bank, would provide significant additional external financing in the period.
Since the emphasis would be on increased medium-term structural reforms, the World Bank would have a larger role to play than it had previously in the management of the debt problem of developing countries. The International Monetary Fund would continue its role in the formulation and implementation of sound macroeconomic policies. In early , Argentina, Mexico, and several smaller countries were working closely with the IMF and the World Bank to formulate programs that might attract the increased financing envisaged by the Baker initiative.
For Mexico the sharp drop in oil prices that occurred during the first two months of has made it more difficult to formulate policies in the longer-term context. International Transactions The U. The decline of exports in largely reflected a sharp drop in the value of agricultural exports—25 percent, about half in price and half in volume. Ample foreign supplies, relatively high U.
Louis higher than in Economic activity in major industrial countries expanded at about the same 3 percent rate as in the previous few years, but demand for U. In the volume of nonagricultural exports was about the same as in ; the average price increased about 1 percent. The small increase in the value of imports in reflected an expansion in volume that was almost entirely offset by a decline in import prices for the year as a whole. The volume of imports increased 4 percent in compared with a 25 percent increase in The volume of non-oil imports in responded to the slower U.
International Developments 23 U. International Transactions1 Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Quarter Year Transaction Current account Merchandise trade balance Exports Imports Investment income net Direct investment, net Portfolio investment, net Other services including military transactions Unilateral transfers, private and government Private capital flows Bank-reported capital, net outflows, - U.
Treasury securities Foreign net purchases of U. Details may not add to totals because of rounding. While imports of consumer goods and automotive products increased fairly strongly in , imports of industrial supplies excluding oil and capital goods increased only fractionally and imports of oil declined. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. The depreciation of the dollar from its February peak began to reduce the price competitiveness of foreign goods noticeably toward the end of the year.
After a prolonged period of weakness, import prices turned up in the fourth quarter of , particularly for various types of manufactured goods. During , net portfolio income swung from net receipts to steadily increasing net payments; this development reflected the shift in the U. While official transactions, both U. Net purchases of U. Facing lower interest rates, U. The proportion of all bonds publicly offered by U.
Net sales of U. Treasury securities to private foreign investors continued strong in although somewhat below the record level.
Continuing pressure on U. In addition, bank liabilities to private nonbanks, particularly residents of Latin America, continued to grow. Foreign official assets in the United States declined slightly in A decline in holdings of OPEC countries was almost matched by increases by other countries.
Despite large intervention sales of dollars by the foreign G countries in , their holdings of official assets in the United States showed essentially no change. Foreign Currency Operations In early the dollar continued to advance strongly, reaching a peak in late February that was about 85 percent above its fourth-quarter level on a trade-weighted average basis.
This surge prompted heavy sales of dollars by foreign central banks. From March through late August the dollar declined fairly steadily, reaching a point about 18 percent below its February peak. This decline reflected a substantial decline in long term real interest rates in the United States relative to those abroad, which reflected, in turn, the disappointment of expectations of a lift in U.
From late August through mid-September, however, the dollar rebounded sharply on the basis of more favorable U. Differential is rates on long-term U. By year-end the dollar had declined a further 12 percent on a weighted average basis.
With this renewed strengthening of the dollar and in the context of swelling protectionist threats in Congress, officials of the G-5 countries met in New York on the weekend of September The G-5 announcement of September 22 pointed to recent changes in economic fundamentals—the convergence of economic performance and policies among major countries—which market participants seemingly had not yet taken into account in determining exchange rates. To underscore this view, the monetary authorities of the G-5 countries initiated a program of concerted intervention in the exchange markets to bring about the appreciation of nondollar currencies—without, however, adopting any exchange-rate Digitized for FRASER http: The dollar's decline after late February was consistent with a sharp drop in the real long-term interest rate differential between assets denominated in dollars and those denominated in foreign currencies.
For the year as a whole, U. One-half of these amounts was for the account of the Federal Reserve, and one-half for the account of the Exchange Stabilization Fund of the U. There were no realizations of profits during the year as the Federal Reserve did not sell any foreign currencies. There were no drawings or repayments on the Federal Reserve Swap Network during Report on February 20, The Outlook for the Economy in Nineteen eighty-four was another year of substantial economic growth in the United States.
Production and employment gains were large, making the expansion of the past two years—with growth in real gross national product averaging 6 percent per year—the strongest cyclical upswing since the early s. Moreover, continued vigor of the economy was accompanied by signs of some further lowering of inflationary expectations.
Aggregate price measures rose around 4 percent last year, about the same as during the two preceding years. While prices of services continued to rise 5 to 6 percent, prices of many goods were relatively flat, and underlying wage trends seemed to be moderating. Economic growth had been extraordinarily rapid in the first half of and then slowed abruptly around midyear. Although some slowing in growth was widely anticipated, the abruptness of the change raised some question about the continuing strength of expansionary forces.
However, during the last few months of the year, output and employment were clearly rising, though at a more moderate pace than earlier in the year. Louis during the year drew attention away from a number of continuing problems, but those problems are nonetheless real and serious. The overall rate of unemployment is still uncomfortably high, and the joblessness among certain groups—for example, teenagers and blacks—remains well above the average.
Sectors of the economy facing intense competition from abroad, such as agriculture and certain mining and manufacturing industries, have not participated in the rapid economic expansion overall and have been under strong financial stress.
Strains also remain evident among financial institutions: While it has not been an impediment to economic expansion to date, growth in credit has been exceptionally rapid, and many households and businesses have accumulated substantial indebtedness, often in short-term or variable-rate forms that make them especially vulnerable to unexpected economic developments.
Also, despite the impetus from strong U. Many of the problems afflicting particular industries have causes and complications that, at least in part, must be dealt with in direct and specific ways.
But it is also evident that the enormous imbalances in our federal fiscal posture and in our trade and current account position have aggravated the problems and made constructive solutions much more difficult.
In an expanding economy requiring more private credit, the need to finance the large federal deficits has contributed to the pressures that have held real interest rates at historically high levels. The failure to deal with budgetary deficits also has sustained doubts in the minds of the public about the ability of the government to continue to curb inflation over the long run. The large federal deficits are mirrored in our external imbalance.
Many foreign investors have been attracted to the comparatively high real rates of return offered on dollar-denominated assets, and U. Other forces stimulating capital inflows have been at work as well, including political and economic uncertainties in other countries and the relative stability and vigor of our economy. The shift in capital flows has supplemented domestic saving and helped finance the federal government deficit and private investment.
But, at the same time, the strong demand for the dollar has driven its value on foreign exchange markets to extremely high levels. As the dollar has appreciated, the demand for our exports has suffered and our purchases of imported goods have increased dramatically, resulting in strong competitive pressures on the manufacturing, minDigitized for FRASER http: Louis ing, and agriculture sectors and leading to calls for protectionist measures.
Moreover, the capital inflows lead to mounting financial claims of foreigners that the nation must be prepared to deal with in future years, through reduced imports or increased exports, in either case lowering domestic consumption.
The Economic Projections oftheFOMC Notwithstanding the risks associated with the domestic and international problems just outlined, the weight of the evidence points to reasonably favorable near-term prospects for aggregate economic performance. In recent months, personal income growth has been strong, reflecting continuing substantial gains in employment and helping to support consumer spending.
Overbuilding of multifamily residential units and offices in some parts of the country may pose questions about the outlook in these areas, but the lower interest rates that developed over recent months suggest that single-family homebuilding may strengthen.
Surveys of businesses indicate plans for continued growth in plant and equipment spending in the coming months, though at a slower pace than last year; meanwhile, some imbalances in business inventories that developed during appear to be well along in the process of correction, and in some sectors inventories are quite lean relative to sales. Many states and localities are experiencing an improvement in their finances, which portends further support to the expansion from that sector.
And, at the federal level, there continues to be a strongly stimulative thrust from fiscal policy. These developments help support the possibilities of continuing restraint in price increases. Also, in the context of an economy expanding at a sustainable rate, they are consistent with continuing growth in average real income.
Taking account of these factors, the members of the Federal Open Market Committee as well as Federal Reserve Bank Presidents who are not at present FOMC members now foresee the probable continuation of the economic expansion through its third year, although at a more moderate pace than in the first two years.
The central tendency of the members' forecasts indicates the probability of an increase in real gross national product of between 3V2 and 4 percent this year. At the same time, most members expect general measures of price inflation to remain close to recent trends. When considering the general outlook for , members of the FOMC recognized that persisting problems could become aggravated for particular sectors of the economy, and that there are risks for the economy as a whole.
Clearly, there is growing distress in many farm communities. In- comes from farming have been low, land prices are falling, and many producers face heavy debt burdens. In the household and business sectors, higher levels of indebtedness are unlikely to forestall further gains in spending, but unless moderated, they would in time add to financial pressures.
Favorable price performance has been encouraged by the strength of the dollar in the exchange markets. A sharp and large reversal of that strength could be reflected in at least temporarily stronger inflationary pressures. Greater confidence in prospects for price stability is, of course, dependent over time on suitably restrained growth in the money supply; and that necessary approach and more moderate real interest rates would be facilitated by effective action to reduce substantially the size of federal budget deficits in the upcoming and subsequent fiscal years.
Action to restore balance in the government's fiscal position is important to the achievement of an environment conducive to stable, strong economic growth. In their forecasts, the Committee members assumed that the exchange rate would remain within the range of recent months and that effective fiscal action is in prospect.
The Administration's projections for both real GNP growth and inflation do fall, however, toward the upper part of the ranges of Committee members' forecasts, while the CBO's estimate of real growth is a bit lower than the central tendency range of the FOMC.
The Federal Reserve's Objectives for Money and Credit in At its meeting of February , the FOMC set monetary and credit growth ranges for designed to be consistent with further sustainable economic growth and progress toward reasonable price stability over time. Specifically, the Committee 1 set a growth range for Ml of 4 to 7 percent from the fourth quarter of through the fourth quarter of , the same as that tentatively selected last July; 2 established target ranges of 6 to 9 percent and 6 to 9lh percent for M2 and M3 respectively, V percentage point 2 higher at the upper end of the range than that tentatively set in July; and 3 set an associated monitoring range of 9 to 12 percent for the debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors, 1 percentage point higher than tentatively indicated.
The upper end of the range for Ml is 1 percentage point below that of , and the range for M2 is the same as last year's. The upper end of the target range for M3 is slightly above that for last year. That increase, as well as the upward adjustment in the associated monitoring range for the debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors, reflects analysis of developments during suggesting that growth somewhat greater than anticipated earlier may be consistent with Committee objectives Digitized for FRASER http: Louis for the year.
Expansion within these ranges would represent a significant deceleration in the actual growth of M3 and debt from the experience of last year when the target ranges were exceeded. In formulating these objectives, the Committee assumed that no new statutory or regulatory developments would be enacted that would appreciably influence the behavior of the monetary and credit aggregates in On average, the behavior of Ml velocity—nominal GNP divided by the money stock—during was broadly consistent with previous cyclical patterns.
Together with other evidence, this development suggests that the factors responsible for the highly unusual velocity behavior over and early have receded. Nonetheless, a range of uncertainty inevitably remains about the trend of Ml relative to nominal GNP in light of recent deposit deregulation and other financial innovations that have affected the funding policies of banks and the cash management practices of the public. On balance, it appears likely that the process of deposit deregulation will lead to a trend rate of increase in the velocity of Ml that may be somewhat lower than in the period as a whole since World War II.
The new target range of 4 to 7 percent for Ml encompasses growth in Ml consistent with velocity expansion over the coming year approximating that of last year, and also higher Ml growth than would be needed should velocity grow at a rate approximating the reduced trend suggested above. The movements in velocity during occurred in a context of moderate increases in interest rates over much of the year; however, velocity has slowed substantially in recent months in the context of an appreciable rise in money growth and following declines in interest rates.
In all the circumstances, a somewhat higher rate of money growth than implied by straight-line projections from the fourth quarter base to the targets for the fourth quarter of may be appropriate early in the year, but growth of M l would be expected to slow, and velocity growth to rise, as the current adjustments are completed. Thus, as the year progresses, growth of Ml would be expected to move gradually toward and into the FOMC's target range. Depending upon developments with respect to velocity and price behavior, growth of Ml and of the other monetary aggregates in the upper parts of their ranges may be appropriate over the year as a whole.
Those developments will, of course, be closely monitored over the year. Like M l , growth of M2 and M3 have been particularly strong in recent months, reflecting the unusually favorable yield spreads in favor of monetary assets that emerged temporarily toward the end of last year; open market interest rates dropped more swiftly than rates offered by depository instiDigitized for FRASER http: Louis 31 tutions on retail deposits and returns on money market mutual funds.
In addition, M3 growth has reflected substantial issuance of large CDs by thrift institutions to support their lending in mortgage and consumer loan markets. Growth of the broader monetary aggregates is influenced, as well, by the pattern of international capital inflows associated with the huge current account deficit.
Domestic banks may continue to borrow sizable amounts of Eurodollar funds from their foreign branches and unaffiliated foreign banks; such borrowings are not included in the measured monetary aggregates.
By reducing the need for funding through other managed liabilities included in M2 and M3, these inflows tend to restrain measured monetary growth in relation to growth of bank credit and of credit generally. Moreover, many domestic borrowers, including the federal government and private corporations, may continue to tap overseas securities markets directly, reducing the need for credit expansion by U.
Given the federal budget deficit as projected by the administration for —as well as a likely expansion of spending by domestic sectors in excess of nominal GNP growth, as part of that spending flows abroad—the Committee contemplates that domestic nonfinancial debt may continue to increase more rapidly than nominal GNP.
Still, actual growth of debt in should be markedly less than in , as nominal GNP growth and overall credit demands moderate. Growth within the debt range for assumes also a slowing in credit for mergers, leveraged buyouts, and other financial restructuring. Such credit led to some erosion in corporate equity cushions last year, and a more cautious approach is anticipated this year. This massive federal borrowing will compete for available domestic savings with the strong private credit demands accompanying further growth of economic activity, keeping interest rates and exchange rates higher than they otherwise would be.
Such relatively high interest rates and exchange rates limit expansion in those sectors that are most sensitive to the cost of credit and impair the competitive positions of domestic import-competing and export industries. Decisive and credible actions to reduce federal budget deficits would have favorable effects on investors' expectations and help to lower interest rates, especially longer-term rates, even before these reductions become fully effective.
Such actions would work to relieve the imbalances and strains within the economy, contribute to further abatement of inflationary expectations, and so reinforce the prospects for continued growth and stability. The Performance of the Economy in The economy recorded major gains in , with the real gross national product up 5lk percent and the unemployment rate down more than 1 percentage point over the year. The growth in output and employment was exceptionally strong in comparison with experience in other post-Korean War expansions.
But even more striking, in terms of its departure from past norms, was the extraordinary rise in domestic spending, which again appreciably outstripped growth in domestic production. Louis the year such spending rose about 63k percent in real terms. Consumers and businesses purchased greatly increased quantities of imported goods, whose relative prices were lowered by the appreciation of the dollar in exchange markets, and the U.
Last year's economic gains were achieved without a pickup in inflationary pressures, in part owing to the rise in the exchange value of the dollar. Aggregate indexes of prices rose about 4 percent or less, similar to rates of inflation recorded in Ample availability of industrial capacity here and abroad helped to contain price increases.
Labor cost pressures also were limited, as wage increases actually were slightly lower than a year earlier. Labor markets continued to reflect the still considerable unemployment in the economy as well as the adjustments of wages in some sectors to the realities of forces associated with deregulation and foreign competition. Wage changes also reflected the favorable feedback effect of lower inflation on anticipatory or catch-up pay demands. Although the nation as a whole has made substantial progress in the past two years toward the goals of sustained growth and high employment along with price stability, important segments of the economy have continued to experience considerable difficulty.
One symptom of continuing imbalances has been interest rates that, relative to the prevailing rate of inflation, have remained exceptionally high by historical standards.
However, after moving upward during the first half of the year when economic expansion was especially brisk, interest rates retraced their advances in the second half of the year. At year-end, they were, on balance, a little lower. Monetary Policy Reports Federal government tax and spending policies have provided substantial stimulus to aggregate demands for goods and services, but in credit markets the deficits have added strongly to the demands for funds and have been one important force keeping interest rates high.
Moreover, there is general agreement that, unless legislative measures are enacted, budget deficits are likely to increase further, even in the context of a reasonably growing economy. This prospect, with its implication of continuing pressures on the supply of savings, has been a factor in the rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar and the attendant emergence of enormous deficits in our trade and current accounts with other nations.
Although, as noted above, the sharply higher value of the dollar has been an important factor in the movement toward price stability, inflationary pressures could become more apparent if the U.
The Household Sector The household sector continued to benefit last year from the economic expansion. This strong increase in income supported a rapid rise in spending for consumer goods even as the personal saving rate rose.
Household sector outlays in this expansion have been tilted more toward durable goods than has been typical. Louis 33 unemployment, consumers had curtailed discretionary purchases of household goods. Since the end of , however, strong employment and income growth and rising consumer confidence have been translated into an appreciable restocking of household durables.
The strength of automobile purchases in was a part of this restocking process. As the stock of existing autos has aged, replacement demand has grown. Most recently, reductions in gasoline prices have lowered operating costs. Automobile sales in rose to IOV2 million units, the highest level since The foreign share of the market declined, owing in large part to the impact of limitations on Japanese units during a period of expanding sales.
Indeed, demand for domestic autos proved to be so strong that producers had difficulty supplying many of the more popular models, even though auto companies operated some factories at near full capacity over most of the year.
Total auto production was up 14 percent from the preceding year, despite brief strikes in the autumn. Spending for new homes slowed over the course of , with rising mortgage interest rates through midyear a factor reducing housing activity. However, there were some initial signs of improvement in the housing sector at year-end, associated with earlier declines in interest rates during the fall.
From the fourth quarter of to the fourth quarter of , residential construction outlays, in real terms, were up 3V2 percent after an extremely rapid advance in For as a whole, 1. Moreover, relatively stable house prices and the growing use of adjustable-rate mortgages made home purchases more accessible for many households. The second year of strong growth in income and spending was accompanied by significant changes in household balance sheets. Late in and in the first half of , financial assets declined relative to income—owing primarily to the sluggish performance of stock prices—retracing a portion of the strong gains made earlier in the recovery.
However, the subsequent rise in equity prices helped to restore household asset positions to their previous high levels, and since the turn of the year, with stock prices up sharply, asset positions have improved farther. Meanwhile, growth of household indebtedness picked up noticeably last year, and consumer installment debt as a share of disposable income moved to near its previous peak in the late s.
Despite the rise in indebtedness, there were few signs of increased financial stress in the household sector. The incidence of payment difficulties on consumer installment debt remained historically low, and home mortgage delinquency rates were about unchanged for the year as a whole.
Nonetheless, the proportion of problem loans in the home mortgage market has not receded from its recession high, and there is some special concern about future prospects in this area owing to the added risk exposure of homeowners who took on mortgages carrying adjustable features, especially those made with sizable initial interest rate concessions. Louis linquencies to date appears attributable not so much to adjustable-rate loans as to a combination of unemployment that is still high and real estate prices that are more stable than some borrowers had anticipated.
The Business Sector The increase in business spending for plant and equipment was greater in than in In fact, the rise in gross business capital outlays over these two years combined was much larger than in any other economic expansion since World War II.
Profits in the nonfinancial corporate sector were up substantially in , although by year-end the level had fallen back a bit owing to the slowing in sales growth. Growth in business fixed investment spending was strongest in the first half of the year, but continued at a doubledigit pace in real terms in the second half. For the year as a whole, large gains were registered for both equipment and structures outlays.
The ebullience of total spending reflected a number of factors, including the more favorable tax laws enacted in , the desire to take advantage of technological advances, and the further narrowing of the margin of unused factory capacity under strong demand growth. Continued competitive pressure from foreign producers provided additional impetus for rapid modernization.
At the same time, many U. Instead, foreign manufacturers captured an increasing share of capital goods purchased by U. Those gains were concentrated largely in the first half of the year, alongside the rapid pace of the expansion of final demand.
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